PM Insights 2024 Q3 Market Update
PM Insights 2024 Q3 in Review
September 30, 2024
2024 Q3 Insights
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Activity remains strong.
Activity remained strong in Q3'24, rising vs the previous quarter, with overall volumes and average (mean) volumes rising also, esp. on the bid side, indicating continued growth in larger institutional buying interest vs Q2'24.
Liquidity continues to improve.
While rising buy-side interest and liquidity continue to improve, it's worth noting that much of this improvement appears to be driven by the top names in Q3.
Overall returns mixed vs Q2.
Quarter-on-quarter returns for Q3 were more mixed and less positive overall, with a slow start to the quarter. However, the 2nd half of the quarter proved to be more positive, perhaps setting up a strong finish to the year.
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Indication Volumes by Size Bucket
(*) PM Insights does not use contributions with volume less than $1M in our composite calculation.
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Private & Public Market ROI
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Private vs. Public YTD ROI
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Private Sector YTD ROI
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The PM50 Growth tracks the performance of the 50 most active private names observed in the secondary market. It is an equal-weighted index, rebalanced on a monthly basis.
This rebalancing of constituents over time gives way for more active names to participate in what we observe as "market performance," and in a more appropriate manner than static selections and weightings criteria.
Private Market: Sector Level
|| Sector-level analysis as of September 30, 2024
PM50 Growth index is up 3% and volatility of its ROI is 14%.
Neobank sector has the highest ROI at 16.1%.
Banking sector has the highest volatility of ROI at 51.8%.
Food sector has the lowest ROI at -12.3%.
Entertainment sector has the lowest volatility of ROI at 5.6%.
PM50 Growth Quarterly ROI
Private market ROI is on the rise.
PM Insights data points to a continued rebound in the private market with 3 quarters of positive ROIs, though the pace of the rebound had slowed from the previous quarter.
Seasonality may also have been at play with the first 6 weeks being slower and negative overall, with more activity and positive returns coming from mid August onwards.
Please note that PM Insights added a number of brokers with significant historical data sets and this led to an update of the whole historical data, leading to a change in past ROI figures.
Q3 '24 Sector ROI
Two thirds of PM Insights sector benchmarks are in the red for Q3.
The likes of Banking, Neobank, Financial & Payments lead the pack in terms of ROI. This has largely been driven by a huge rise of Revolut, that was sent rocketing as a result of their UK banking license approval. Chime and Airwallex may have also caught some of that wind in their sails, posting solid (20%+) returns for the quarter.
Alternatively, Defi & Blockchain have turned negative for this quarter, underperforming the broader private market along with Logistics, Food, & Analytics, which continue to face headwinds.
Q3 '24 Sector Volatility
Lower ROI volatility in Q3, with an average of 21% (vs 30% in Q2).
The volatility of the ROI is calculated as the average movement of the ROI over the 90 days prior to September 30, 2024.
Overall observed volatility is lower this quarter vs the previous one- the best-performing sector also being one of the most volatile (Banking).
Conversely, the headline PM50 Growth benchmark saw much lower volatility in Q3, dropping to just 6% this quarter vs 55% in Q2.
6M Average Bid & Ask Spread per Sector
Median Revenue Multiple per Sector
Revenue multiples for the most active sector benchmarks remain stable.
In 2021, popular private sectors saw peak median revenue multiples of 40-80x. However, 2022 brought a market cooldown, with multiples declining and showing significant inter-sector variation.
Since early 2023, revenue multiples have compressed substantially across all sectors, with differences between sectors narrowing. The most active private sectors have experienced drastic multiple reductions from their 2021 peaks, and have remained stable since the start of the year with slight increases seen in Data & Payments.
Note: The brief spikes in the data are due to new funding rounds that occurred
Activity
Overall Q3 activity rising despite initial mid summer lull.
PM Insights observed an almost 2-fold increase in institutional-level ($1M+) activity in Q1 of 2024 compared to Q4 of 2023.
The activity in Q3 of 2024 increased slightly compared to the previous quarter, even though it got off to a slow start in July. Activity has been heating up through August and September.
Mean Volume per Indication Type
Average bid-side volume spiked in August and was up quarter over quarter, while average offer volume dropped to the previous quarter after the spike observed by PM Insights in June.
While trade volumes were lower in Q3, overall average volumes climbed and we expect the trend to continue into the end of the year as increasing numbers of institutional players are becoming active in the secondary market.
Quarterly Bid & Ask Volume
Offers continue to exceed bids in terms of volume each quarter since 2021, though a clear recovery has been underway since H2 of 2023.
Q3'24 has seen higher bid side volume vs the previous quarter, with larger institutional demand on the rise, though mainly concentrated in the largest, most liquid names.
Top 10 Based on Bid or Ask Volume in Q3 '24
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Aerospace & Defence : SpaceX & Anduril topping the observed bid side secondary volume in Q3, indicating renewed interest in Aerospace & Defence. Predictably, AI names were also in the mix with OpenAI, Anthropic and Scale.ai all seeing significant upticks in interest vs Q2.
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SpaceX & ByteDance: The two largest private companies are at the top of the observed seller interest. However, while SpaceX has seen a surge in both buy and sell-side activity, Bytedance sell-side activity has risen much more dramatically vs Q2.
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Top 10 Companies Based on Overall Volume
Leading the charge each of the past quarters are 2 AI companies -- Groq & Anthropic.
Familiar faces such as SpaceX, Stripe, Klarna & ByteDance are present, but have seen less volume in 2024 given shifting attention to AI companies.
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Largest names attract most of the action in Q3: Familiar faces such as SpaceX, ByteDance, Stripe, Klarna & OpenAI are once again driving most of the observed activity, with just CoreWeave being one of the latest AI-adjacent upstarts breaking into the top 10.
Top 10 Based on Institutional Contributions in Q3 2024
* Price (USD) estimated based on secondary market activity observed by PM Insights. Valuation is estimated based on said price and share count from state filings and/or news in the public domain. Note that share count in calculations may change as new filing documents are obtained.
Quarterly Percentage Change in Share Price
Revolut is riding high.
Revolut outshone all the AI companies on the back of strong results for 2023 and the approval of their banking license, pushing their valuation into the stratosphere. Dataminr, Glean and, of course, OpenAI have continued to ride the AI wave up and to the right.
One notable strong performer was Via, the mobility conglomerate out of India that has received a fair bit of positive interest on the back of increasing likelyhood of an imminent IPO.
Proportion of Change in Valuation
92% of companies in PM Insights’ universe were valued higher in their most recent round compared to previous round.
On the other hand, 35% of companies traded at had higher valuation compared to their most recent round, pointing to a ways to go to recovering some of the investments made in the heady days of 2021.
Average Change in Valuation
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There is a significant dichotomy observed between valuations reached in most recent round vs the previous round, with some companies reaching much higher valuations, while others suffering significant down rounds with timing and sector (esp AI) being key.
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However, the upward swings are less pronounced when comparing PM Insights’ current implied valuations to most recent primary rounds, yet the drops seen for some are even steeper here. Q3 saw lower average increases vs Q2.
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PM Insights Price vs Mutual Fund Price
Historically, mutual funds have marked their positions in late-stage private companies at or above the most recent primary funding round valuation.
As market cooled off many of these funds were still slow to reflect the overall market sentiment, and increasingly PM Insights’ pricing (based on institutional secondary market activity) was below most mutual fund marks for those companies. However, this trend appears to be reversing per the numbers seen in Q2'24 (filings are a quarter delayed typically), which is in line with broader market recovery and positive dynamics, along with funds marking more in line with secondary market.
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