Q2 Insights

‍

<row>

<col>

Activity remains strong.

While we observed lower levels of activity this quarter compared to the spike seen in Q1 '24 , still Q2 '24 saw substantially higher levels of activity vs 2022-2023 period.

Liquidity on the rise with spreads tightening.

Increasing number of active buyers are in the market, improving overall liquidity and leading to tighter spreads vs this time in 2023.

Volumes stabilizing across bids and offers.

Average volumes across both bids and offers appear to have stabilized around the $10M mark, with higher volume (>$50M) activity returning, but closed trade volumes still remain volatile.

</col>

<col>

ApeVue Indication Volumes by Size Bucket

_{(*) ApeVue does}_not_{use contributions with volume less than $1M in our composite calculation.}

ApeVue stands as the premier market data vendor for private company shares. It is the sole truly independent solution built for institutions that demand the highest quality and most objective data, research, & insights.

</col>

</row>

‍

Private & Public Market ROI

‍

<row>

<col>

Private vs. Public YTD ROI

</col>

<col>

Private Sector YTD ROI

</col>

</row>

_{The ApeVue50 tracks the performance of the 50 most active private names observed in the secondary market. It is an equal-weighted index, rebalanced on a monthly basis.}

_{This rebalancing of constituents over time gives way for more active names to participate in what we observe as "market performance," and in a more appropriate manner than static selections and weightings criteria.}

Private Market: Sector Level

|| Sector-level analysis as of June 30, 2024

ApeVue50 index is up 9% and volatility of its ROI is 55%.

Financial sector has the highest volatility of ROI at 91%.

InvestmentTech sector has the highest ROI at 20%.

Marketing sector has the lowest ROI at -6%.

Entertainment sector has the lowest volatility of ROI at 5%.

‍

ApeVue50 Quarterly ROI

Private market ROI is on the rise.

ApeVue data points to a continued rebound in the private market with a 9% ROI in Q2 '24, a 4% increase from Q1's 5% ROI, maintaining the positive momentum since this time last year.

While the overall momentum does appear to be positive, there are still some pockets of the market that remain in negative territory, as the next slide will show.

‍

‍

Q2 '24 Sector ROI

75% of ApeVue indices are green in Q2.

The likes of InvestmentTech, AI,Cloud & Infra, DeFi and BlockChain lead the pack in terms of ROI. The latter two likely buoyed by the resurgence in BTC and other crypto interest and the former, notably, Cloud & Infra and AI sectors driven further up and to the right by continued interest in companies like OpenAI, Hugging Face, Anthropic, & Groq on the back of overall AI hype.

Marketing, eCommerce, Logistics, Transportation, & Analytics have not enjoyed the same positive ROI and are underperforming the broader private market in this quarter.

‍

‍

Q2 '24 Sector Volatility

Higher ROI volatility in Q2, with an average of 30% (vs 19% in Q1).

The volatility of the ROI is calculated as the average movement of the ROI over the 90 days prior to July 1, 2024.

Overall observed volatility is higher this quarter vs the previous one, with the best performing sector also being one of the most volatile (InvestmentTech).

Conversely, lower performing sectors such as Logistics, Analytics, Marketing, Transportation and Entertainment (with overall negative or small positive ROIs) were relatively stable.

‍

‍

30D Average Bid & Ask Spread per Sector

‍

‍

Median Revenue Multiple per Sector

The most active private sectors have seen their revenue multiples fall drastically compared to 2021 highs.

In 2021, popular private sectors saw peak median revenue multiples of 40-80x. However, 2022 brought a market cooldown, with multiples declining and showing significant inter-sector variation.

Since early 2023, revenue multiples have compressed substantially across all sectors, with differences between sectors narrowing. The most active private sectors have experienced drastic multiple reductions from their 2021 peaks.

‍

Sectors

Headquarters

CEO

Activity

Q1 '24 remains the most active quarter to date.

ApeVue observed an almost 2-fold increase in activity in Q1 '24 compared to Q4 '23.

While the activity in Q2 '24 was lower than the previous quarter, it was higher than all other quarters since 2021.

Also, historically, the first quarter each year has been observed to be the most active. It remains to be seen whether the previous years’ trend of H2 having lower activity vs H1 will also play out in 2024.

‍

‍

Mean Volume per Indication Type

Average indication sizes have continued their steady rise since the start of H2 in 2023.

Asks: Where in 2021 the average offer was $20m+, this dropped dramatically in 2022, and has remained fairly stable hovering between $5-$10M, stabilizing at the higher end of that range in the most recent quarter.

Bids: Buy-side volumes have been more volatile over the last 18 months, however, they have stabilized in Q2 '24 around the $10M mark, similar to the average sell-side we’ve observed.

Trades: Similarly, trades volumes have also seen quite a bit of volatility, briefly reaching close to $10M size on average in April of 2024, but then dropping off again below the $5M mark by the end of the quarter.

‍

‍

Quarterly Bid & Ask Volume

Offers have consistently exceeded bids in terms of volume each quarter since 2021.

However, since H2 of 2023 the bid side has seen a resurgence and we are seeing more buy side interest in the market as a whole, reflected also in the upward price pressure across many of the more liquid names in the market.

‍

‍

Top 10 Based on Bid or Ask Volume in Q2 '24

‍

<row>

<col>

REVOLUT: A lot of interest in Revolut in the last quarter as reflected both by the high bid volume and the price per share continuing to climb, getting closer to the $400 mark.

</col>

<col>

GROQ: Having reached a peak of c. $45 / share half way through the quarter, Groq has been under sell-side pressure with increasing numbers and volumes of offers driving the price back down below $30/share.

</col>

</row>

‍

Top 10 Companies Based on Overall Volume

Leading the charge each of the past quarters are 2 AI companies -- Groq & Anthropic.‍

Familiar faces such as SpaceX, Stripe, Klarna & ByteDance are present, but have seen less volume in 2024 given shifting attention to AI companies.

‍

<row>

<col>

</col>

<col>

</col>

</row>

Most Active Names Performance

‍

_{* Price (USD) estimated based on secondary market activity observed by ApeVue. Valuation is estimated based on said price and share count from state filings and/or news in the public domain. Note that share count in calculations may change as new filing documents are obtained.}

‍

Quarterly Percentage Change in Share Price

AI, Infra, & Robotics continuing to make waves.

Cerebras systems continued its surge that begain at the end of Q1, with Figure AI not far behind. Scale.ai, unsurprisingly, also posted significant gains and raised a $1B to boot. Bitso was also buoyed by the crypto comeback.

On the other hand, Groq, Neo4j & Placer.ai paired some of their recent gains, perhaps as a result of some profit taking, and sellers deciding to take advantage of a more liquid market.

‍

‍

Proportion of Change in Valuation

93% of companies in ApeVue’s universe are trading higher than the valuation they achieved two rounds prior.

On the other hand, 62% of companies are trading at a discount versus their most recent round, and only 38% managed positive returns there, pointing to a ways to go to recovering some of the investments made in the heady days of 2021.

‍

‍

Average Change in Valuation

‍

<row>

<col>

There is a significant dichotomy observed between valuations reached in most recent round vs the previous round, with some companies reaching much higher valuations, while others suffering significant down rounds with timing and sector (esp AI) being key.

</col>

<col>

However, the upward swings are less pronounced when comparing ApeVue’s current implied valuations to most recent primary rounds, yet the drops seen for some are even steeper here.

</col>

</row>

‍

ApeVue Price vs Mutual Fund Price

‍Historically, mutual funds have marked their positions in late-stage private companies at or above the most recent primary funding round valuation.

As market cooled off many of these funds were still slow to reflect the overall market sentiment, and increasingly ApeVue’s pricing (based on institutional secondary market activity) was below most mutual fund marks for those companies.

‍